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Key takeaways from Mthuli Ncube’s play-it-safe budget review

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Finance minister Mthuli Ncube played it safe in his mid-term budget review statement on Thursday, making no major policy decisions and saying he may not need additional funding for his 2021 budget.

After many previous policy shocks, the best part about a largely uneventful budget statement was exactly that; it was uneventful. There were no major announcements on taxation, the currency, or any measures likely to shake tables immediately.

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“There is need to stay the course. There are no policy changes; I believe the existing policies are achieving the desired results are still adequate,” Ncube said. If any big budget changes are to made, those would come in the 2022 budget, he said.

Here is a summary of some of the main takeaways from Ncube’s statement:

Economic Growth: More ambitious target set

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Ncube’s prediction of 7.4% growth for 2021 was already ambitious, so much that even President Emmerson Mnangagwa thought it must be revised downwards. But Ncube is even more confident. He now sees the economy growing by 7.8%, higher than his initial expectation of 7.4%.

His predictions are far higher than the IMF’s projection of 6% and the World Bank’s 3.9% forecast. They also contrast sentiment from major local companies, many of which are tempering their confidence of a rebound with caution over the likely impact of COVID-19.

Why is Ncube so confident? He cites “rainfall season, higher international commodity prices, stable macroeconomic environment and a managed COVID-19 pandemic.”

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Ncube says agriculture will this year grow faster than expected. It will grow by 34%, higher than the initially predicted 11%. He bases this on output from key farm segments, such as maize production.

The finance minister is also counting on the base effect of GDP contraction in 2020, when the economy shrank by 4%. For 2022, Ncube expects the economy to expand by 5.4%

He sees year-on-year inflation slowing down to between 22% and 35% by December 2021.

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Vaccine procurement: More spending needed

Ncube said COVID-19 vaccines that have been bought so far have been purchased “utilising the savings from last year, in the main.”

But, to achieve Zimbabwe’s target of 60% of the population, the vaccination campaign will require “mobilisation of additional resources for the procurement of more vaccines, over and above the US$100m resource envelope.”

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Ncube laid out what he has spent so far on the programme. To date, 11.8m doses and 7.2m syringes have been purchased using US$93.2 million.

No extra budget needed, for now

Ncube has stayed away from asking for more money from Parliament. Unless there is a major shock, he says, there will be no need for a supplementary budget this year.

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He said: “In the outlook to December 2021, expenditure target of ZWL$421.6 billion will be maintained assuming continued containment of expenditures, save for exigencies managed through reallocations, where necessary.”

So far this year, the Government has managed to live within its means. The government raised an estimated Z$198.2 billion in revenues between January and June and spent Z$197.6 billion.

Diaspora’s support for economy keeps growing

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During the first six months of the year, Zimbabweans living abroad sent home a total of US$746.9 million. Over the same time last year, they sent US$288.7 million. Remittances are projected to reach US$1.3 billion by year end, Ncube said.

The contribution of Diaspora remittances to the economy is growing.

“Diaspora remittances and other transfers, which constitute the secondary income account, are projected to continue driving the current account balance as was the case in 2020. Personal transfers from Zimbabweans in the Diaspora are expected to remain steady and resilient as the economies in key source markets recover from the Covid-19 induced slow-down, allowing them invest in assets back home.”

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Sold: Gold refinery

In December, Ncube announced that the government was privatising Fidelity Printers and Refineries. This is the company that refines and exports gold. Gold producers would control 60% of Fidelity, with central bank keeping 40%.

Ncube has now announced that this deal is now done. Ten miners have agreed to buy the 60% for US$49 million. This will be the first time that the refinery will be in private hands since it was established in 1988.

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While Ncube did not name the ten miners, a structure announced last year said participation would be based on average gold sales over the previous three years. This means among the potential will be the biggest gold producers, such as Kuvimba’s Freda Rebecca, which is now the number one producer, as well as Caledonia Mining, which runs Blanket, and RioZim. – newZwire

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National

Zimbabwe Republic Police officer faces charges for allegedly claiming to be ZRP boss

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BY STAFF REPORTER

A Zimbabwe Republic Police (ZRP) officer appeared in court today facing charges of causing disaffection among police officers, procuring the use of a motor vehicle by fraud, and transmitting false data messages intending to cause harm.

Simbarashe Mandizvidza, an Assistant Inspector in the ZRP, was remanded in custody to Monday, when he will apply for bail.

According to the State, Mandizvidza on August 14, broadcast a video on his YouTube channel, Gondo Harishaye, claiming to be the head of the ZRP, despite knowing that Commissioner General Stephen Mutamba holds the position.

The State alleges that Mandizvidza’s actions were intended to cause disaffection among police officers, contrary to Section 30 of the Criminal Law (Codification and Reform) Act, Chapter 9:23.

Mandizvidza is also accused of procuring the use of a Ford Ranger vehicle by misrepresenting to Chief Inspector Chiteure that he had been instructed by Commissioner Makomo to use the vehicle for errands.

Furthermore, the State alleges that Mandizvidza transmitted false data messages on his YouTube channel, including claims that the ZRP Traffic section had been temporarily disbanded and that Chinese nationals must leave Zimbabwe within 48 hours.

The State indicated that it will oppose Mandizvidza’s bail application, citing the seriousness of the offenses and the need to protect the public interest.

The case continues on Monday.

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Zimbabwe roads claim 24 lives over Heroes holiday

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BY NOKUTHABA DLAMINI 

A total of 24 people lost their lives on Zimbabwe’s roads during the 2025 Heroes and Defence Forces holidays, according to statistics released by the Zimbabwe Republic Police.

The police reported 196 road traffic accidents, 13 of which were fatal, between August 11 and 13. This represents a significant increase from the previous year’s figures, which saw 149 accidents and eight fatalities.

Reckless driving, mechanical faults, speeding, and overtaking errors were cited as major causes of the accidents.

Two major accidents occurred during the period, including a fatal crash on the Mutare-Masvingo Road that claimed the lives of six Zion Christian Church congregants. Another accident on the Bindura-Shamva Road resulted in four fatalities and 17 injuries.

The police have urged motorists to prioritize vehicle maintenance, avoid speeding and reckless overtaking, and adhere to road rules and regulations to prevent further loss of life.

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Another Zimbabwe gold coin sale registers little for most

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BY GAMUCHIRAI MASIYIWA

With the price of gold up globally, the Reserve Bank of

Zimbabwe in April put the gold coins it stopped minting a year earlier back on the

market.

But interested investors had to act fast.

By mid-June, the sale of coins from its accumulated stock was abruptly concluded

and another chapter of the currency chaos that has characterized the nation’s

economy for decades was in the books. This time, at least, economists say the

experiment had little effect.

The short-lived sale is just the latest example in a long line of inconsistent policies,

says Ithiel Mavesere, a lecturer in the economics and development department at theUniversity of Zimbabwe. Storing value in a gold coin is not a viable option for the

majority of the population, he adds.

“Ideally, what they should have done is come up with low-value coins, with

denominations as low as equivalent to US$20 for the majority of the population to

afford,

” Mavesere says.

However, Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe Governor John Mushayavanhu says in a written

response to Global Press Journal that the gold coins were effective as an alternative

investment instrument and there was huge demand from both corporations and

individuals. According to RBZ data, corporations bought about 79% of the gold coins

and individuals bought about 21%.

About US$12 million’s worth sold

The lowest denomination of the coins represents a tenth of an ounce of gold,

equivalent to 9,299.13 in Zimbabwe gold, or ZiG, the national currency, or about

US$347. The highest denomination of the coins represents one ounce of gold,

equivalent to ZiG 92,991.34 or about US$3,470.

In all, the central bank has sold gold coins worth ZiG 343 million, or about US$12.8

million, according to Mushayavanhu, who says the recent sale happened after the

bank noted increased demand following the rise in international gold prices.

“In this context, the Reserve Bank re-issued an accumulated parcel of gold coins from

a combination of gold coins which had been bought back from the market through

redemptions and some coins which were still being held at the Reserve Bank from

the previously minted stock,

” the governor wrote.

A statement from the bank in mid-June announcing the halt to the sale indicated it

had been intended to clear the stock of gold coins it had and those that had been

cashed in by their holders.

Mushayavanhu says the bank stopped minting gold coins in April 2024 to prioritize its

gold reserve which, along with foreign currency reserves, backs the Zimbabwe gold

currency.

He says foreign reserves increased from US$270 million in April 2024 to US$731 million

as of the end of June.

The central bank first introduced the Mosi-oa-Tunya gold coins — which share an

indigenous name for Victoria Falls — in 2022 at a time when the country was

experiencing currency instability with high inflation and continued devaluation of

what was then the national currency, the Zimbabwe dollar.

The coins aimed to reduce dependency on the US dollar and help stabilize the

economy. The coins helped mop up excess cash in local currency that was circulatingin the market. Coupled with other monetary measures in 2022, the monthly inflation

rate dropped from about 31% in June to about 12% in August that year.

However, the exchange rate of the Zimbabwe dollar drastically fell against the US

dollar and the government replaced it with the new Zimbabwe gold currency in April

2024. Since its introduction, the currency’s value has been cut in half.

A ‘drop in the ocean’

Lyle Begbie, an economist with Oxford Economics Africa, believes the sale of the gold

coins when they were introduced in 2022 was more of a revenue-generating scheme,

as it happened at a time when inflation was very high.

He says it makes sense that the recent sale of gold coins was influenced by the

increase in gold prices on the global market. But he adds that the value of gold coins

was too little to have an impact on the economy. Begbie says the US$12.8 million in

coins the central bank reported selling is less than 1% of Zimbabwe’s gross domestic

product — which the World Bank estimates at US$44 billion — a “drop in the ocean”

when it comes to the country’s macroeconomic picture.

Prosper Chitambara, an economist based in Harare, agrees the impact of the recent

sale was minimal. He says gold coins don’t have a significant impact on currency

stability in an economy like Zimbabwe’s, which is highly informal and also highly

dollarized — meaning it’s heavily reliant on the US dollar as a currency.

“Most economic agents in our economy prefer to transact using their US dollars

because it’s a highly tradable and highly liquid asset. … So there’s a huge confidence

and trust in the USD than in the gold coins or even in the Zimbabwe gold,

Chitambara says.

Samuel Wadzai, the executive director of Vendors Initiative for Social and Economic

Transformation, an organization in Harare that advocates for the informal business

sector, says there have been a few instances where members have tried to use gold

coins for everyday transactions, but it hasn’t been widespread.

“Most traders still prefer cash due to the challenges of acceptance and the limited

understanding of gold coins in everyday trade,

” he says.

Isheanesu Kwenda, 31, a Harare street vendor with a sociology degree, says the recent

sale of gold coins didn’t offer any benefit for him. Like many Zimbabweans, he has

heard about the gold coins, but has never seen or opted to buy them. The vendor is

part of Zimbabwe’s informal economy, which sustains over 80% of Zimbabwe’s

population and contributes nearly 72% to the country’s GDP.

“Street economics informs that you should not attempt to get something you are not

sure of or do not understand. … I prefer to sell my goods and keep my money in US

dollars because it holds value, or I can keep my money in stock,

” Kwenda says of theclothing he sells.

Last year, Kwenda lost more than half his earnings after Zimbabwe gold was

introduced. After being paid the equivalent of US$1,000 in Zimbabwe dollars, he only

managed to salvage US$360 and lost the rest in exchange rate losses.

For Kwenda, restoring confidence is simple: The government must stick to a plan,

without making sudden U-turns

This story was originally published by Global Press Journal

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