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Analysts predict economic struggles for Zimbabwe in 2023

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BY CHRIS MURONZI

In December inflation in Zimbabwe peaked at 280 percent, one of the highest rates globally. The Zimbabwean dollar also weakened, trading at 930 to the US dollar on the parallel market – a steep decline after two months of relative stability at 700 to $1.

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This led to plummeting living standards in the Southern African country where 7.9 million people, amounting to half of the population, fell into extreme poverty between 2011 to 2022.

Ahead of the crunch 2023 presidential elections, proposed currency reforms by the incumbent Emmerson Mnangagwa’s administration have already been put on hold.Unsurprisingly economists, political scientists and multilateral institutions are sounding the alarm that the trend of declining economic fundamentals could continue till next year.

During a recent visit to the country, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted a further fall in the gross domestic product (GDP) by 3.5 percent in the coming year due to among other things, “renewed domestic and external shocks (inflation surge, erratic rainfall, electricity shortages, and Russia’s war in Ukraine) … adversely affecting economic and social conditions.”

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“These multiple shocks will continue to weigh on Zimbabwe’s growth prospects,” the IMF said in December.Odds stacked against economy

Analysts say years of economic mismanagement under Zimbabwe’s first leader, Robert Mugabe and later under his predecessor Emmerson Mnangagwa, have stymied the economy, further exacerbated by hyperinflation and the currency devaluing rapidly.

For Gift Mugano, a visiting professor of economics at the University of Zimbabwe Business School, the country’s 2023 economic outlook is gloomy.

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“The year 2023 will be very dire, driven by spill-over effects of difficulties we encountered in 2022,” he told Al Jazeera.

ture, the local currency is expected to continuously weaken against leading currencies this festive season and into the next year.

In November, inflation stood at 255 percent, one of the highest in the world. But Mugano predicts that inflation and exchange rate could more than double by the second quarter of 2023.

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Furthermore, there are fears that while the central bank continues to dictate the exchange rate, there is no hope for convertibility determined by free market conditions.

bility through the liberalisation of the foreign exchange market, ensuring the central bank does not print money through quasi-fiscal operations, maintain tight monetary policy stance and wind down the use of gold coins.

But economists doubt authorities will heed the advice.

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“Zimbabwe is entering a very volatile social and economic period which needs level political minded leaders to handle this with care but I don’t see [the authorities] having that capacity to think straight in terms of management of the affairs of Zimbabwe,” Mugano said.

The war in Ukraine and high inflation have also affected the agriculture sector. In Zimbabwe which relies on fertiliser imports from Ukraine, prices shot up from $28 to approximately $55 per 50-kilogramme (11-pound) bag, pushing bread, an everyday staple above the reach of many residents.

There is also the matter of power cuts nationwide occasioned by reduced electricity generation at its hydroelectric power plant, Kariba Power Station, owing to low dam water levels.

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As a result, industries and households have been bearing the brunt of rolling power outages that last for as much as 20 hours on a daily basis.Authorities hope refurbishment work at its Hwange Thermal Power Plant will add 300 megawatts to the national grid by the end of the first quarter of 2023.

Zimbabwe, which has traditionally relied on power imports from South Africa, Mozambique and Zambia, is now in a quandary because the region is also grappling with an enormous power deficit.

Politics and policies

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A lot also hinges on the looming general elections.Mnangagwa, who has been president since November 2017, is expected to put a bid in for a second term but is facing stiff opposition.

Opposition leader Nelson Chamisa rallied the Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) to win 19 out of the 28 seats in the parliamentary by-elections. Even though the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) still holds a parliamentary majority, analysts said CCC’s showing might be a foretaste of how it might perform in the 2023 presidential election.

In February, 37 opposition supporters were arrested at a rally and there have been other incidents of violence against dissidents in recent months.

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Independent political analyst, is almost certain of heightened political instability in the months leading to the polls and after.

Given the high political stakes of the coming election, Mnangagwa seems set to pull all the stops to retain the presidency, he said.

“I think 2023 spells political doom for Zimbabwe as there is a high likelihood of politically motivated violence in by-elections but likely to intensify towards the local council, parliamentary and presidential polls,” he told Al Jazeera.

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“I think ZANU-PF will attempt as much as possible to stop any campaigns by the opposition be it in urban and rural areas using the security structures and also party militias,” Mukundu added. “This is a zero-sum political game and election for Mnangagwa that he wants to win at any cost.”

The Crisis Coalition of Zimbabwe, a grouping of more than 80 non-governmental organisations in the country, has gone as far as to warn that the coming election could become the bloodiest in Zimbabwe’s history.

“In fact, as we edge towards 2023, we think it (political violence) is going to [get much worse],” Crisis Coalition of Zimbabwe’s Chairman Peter Mutasa said.

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Analysts say Chamisa and the opposition will be hoping that the electorate can vote to show sufficient disappointment with the levity that the government has treated them.

And there is historical precedent to give them hope.

In the 2008 election, Mugabe lost to the late opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai when a historic hyperinflation of more than 1,000 percent wrecked the economy.

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As it was then, the economy is again in freefall. If the Mnangagwa administration wins, Mugano warns, it could use economic policies at will to bend the situation to ZANU-PF’s advantage.

“If Zanu wins the poll, for instance, they will continue with their command economics and will continue on that path of runaway inflation,” he said-AL JAZEERA

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Southern Africa’s Sustainable Use Coalition slams CITES CoP20 decisions as “punishing success” and “killing with kindness”

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BY NOKUTHABA DLAMINI 

The Sustainable Use Coalition Southern Africa (SUCo-SA) has issued two strongly worded statements criticising decisions made at the CITES CoP20 conference in Uzbekistan, accusing Parties of undermining conservation success in southern Africa and ignoring evidence from range states.

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In the first statement, SUCo-SA Vice Chair and the Confederation of Hunters Association of South Africa CEO Stephen Palos condemned the vote rejecting a proposal to remove the abundant southern giraffe from Appendix II. The proposal received 49 votes in favour, 48 against and 38 abstentions — including the 27-member EU bloc — falling short of the two-thirds majority required.

Palos called the outcome “yet another travesty of justice at the CITES CoP,” arguing that the decision reflects “a world dominated by an emotion before science philosophy in conservation.”

He singled out opposition from several African countries, saying:

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“The most vocal objections made came from African countries with shocking records in conservation… where poaching, conflict, poverty, and desperation have decimated their wildlife, and now sell their souls to global anti-use/animal-rightist NGOs.”

Palos said the Chair “overlooked Eswatini and allowed none of the observer organisations an opportunity to speak,” forcing South Africa to call for a vote despite having “superbly presented” the proposal.

According to SUCo-SA, evidence showed that southern giraffe populations in Angola, Botswana, Eswatini, Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe are “overwhelmingly increasing, with only one population reported as stable, and not a single population showing decline.”

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The statement said this success is the result of “decades of effective national legislation, management frameworks, investment by private and community custodians, and sustainable-use incentives.”

But SUCo-SA argues that countries with no giraffe populations or poor conservation performance are influencing decisions that harm nations managing wildlife successfully.

“Once again, CITES (Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora) has managed to punish success and reward failure in conservation. And real people in southern Africa pay the price in hunger and deprivation.”

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SUCo-SA: CITES Parties “killing with kindness” on rhino horn and ivory

In a second statement titled “CITES Parties Killing with Kindness at CoP20 – Rhino Horn & Ivory,” the SUCo-SA Executive criticised what it described as a predictable pattern where CITES Parties praise southern African conservation results while refusing to support related proposals.

The coalition said:

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“They start by congratulating southern African range states for their ‘outstanding successes’… And then, without pause, they immediately announce that they will not support the proposal.”

The statement argued that many countries rejecting downlisting proposals come from regions where rhino or elephant populations have “collapsed or are entirely absent,” and that 47 years of trade bans and demand-reduction campaigns have failed.

“If 47 years of demand-reduction campaigns and trade bans have not saved rhino or elephants, at what point do we acknowledge that this approach is not working?” the coalition asked.

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The statement questioned the positions of the EU, UK and USA, asking why they continue to “punish African conservation successes while rewarding failures” and why they “elevate the views of non-range states and discount the data, management systems, and lived realities of the countries that actually protect these species on the ground.”

According to SUCo-SA, southern African countries deserve practical support, not diplomatic praise that leads to policy obstruction.

“In the most diplomatic but patronising manner, southern African countries are told, in effect, to ‘go to hell, but enjoy the trip.’ This is what we mean when we say they are killing with kindness.”

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The coalition said African states are “not asking for applause; they are asking for recognition of proven results” and the policy space to continue what works.

The statement concludes with a challenge to the global convention:

“CITES must decide whether it wants to remain a forum guided by evidence and sovereignty, or one led by political theatre and external pressure. The future of rhino and elephant conservation depends on that choice.”

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Hwange man sentenced to 40 years for raping two minors

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BY STAFF REPORTER

A 32-year-old man from Victoria Falls has been convicted by the Hwange Magistrates’ Court and sentenced to 40 years imprisonment  for raping two minors.

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The man, whose name has been hidden to protect the image of the victims was being tried by the prosecutors on two counts of rape leading to the conviction.

The court heard that the accused committed the offences against two young female juveniles, aged nine 10 years old who are sisters on the 25th of September this year.

“The offender who was at his place of residence called the victims who were going to school to come to his place of residence to collect baobab fruits,” the National Prosecuting Authority said in a statement.

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“They both got into the offender’s place of residence and the offender instructed the victims to get into his bedroom hut.

The victims complied and the offender followed them into his bedroom and closed the door from inside and raped them.”

The matter came to light on the same day when a relative informed the victim’s grandmother and father that she saw the victims leaving the offenders bedroom and they revealed what had transpired, leading yo his arrest.

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World AIDS Day: UN Chief says ending AIDS by 2030 “is within grasp”

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BY SONIA HLOPHE

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has marked World AIDS Day with a message urging world leaders to scale up investment, confront stigma and ensure that lifesaving HIV services reach everyone who needs them.

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In his statement, Guterres said this year’s commemoration serves as a reminder that the world “has the power to transform lives and futures, and end the AIDS epidemic once and for all.”

He highlighted the major gains achieved over the past decade.

“The progress we have made is undeniable,” he said, noting that “since 2010, new infections have fallen by 40 per cent” while “AIDS-related deaths have declined by more than half.” Access to treatment, he added, “is better than ever before.”

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But despite this global progress, the Secretary-General warned that the crisis is far from over.

“For many people around the world, the crisis continues,” he said. “Millions still lack access to HIV prevention and treatment services because of who they are, where they live or the stigma they endure.”

Guterres also raised concern over shrinking resources:

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“Reduced resources and services are putting lives at risk and threatening hard-won gains.”

He said ending AIDS requires fully supporting communities, scaling up prevention and ensuring treatment for everyone.

“Ending AIDS means empowering communities, investing in prevention and expanding access to treatment for all people.”

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He also called for innovation to be matched by real-world delivery:

“It means uniting innovation with action, and ensuring new tools like injectables reach more people in need.”

Above all, he stressed the need for a human-rights centred response so no one is excluded.

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“At every step, it means grounding our work in human rights to ensure no one is left behind.”

With the 2030 global deadline approaching, the UN chief said success is still possible if momentum is sustained.

“Ending AIDS as a public health threat by 2030 is within grasp. Let’s get the job done.”

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