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Analysts predict economic struggles for Zimbabwe in 2023

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BY CHRIS MURONZI

In December inflation in Zimbabwe peaked at 280 percent, one of the highest rates globally. The Zimbabwean dollar also weakened, trading at 930 to the US dollar on the parallel market – a steep decline after two months of relative stability at 700 to $1.

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This led to plummeting living standards in the Southern African country where 7.9 million people, amounting to half of the population, fell into extreme poverty between 2011 to 2022.

Ahead of the crunch 2023 presidential elections, proposed currency reforms by the incumbent Emmerson Mnangagwa’s administration have already been put on hold.Unsurprisingly economists, political scientists and multilateral institutions are sounding the alarm that the trend of declining economic fundamentals could continue till next year.

During a recent visit to the country, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted a further fall in the gross domestic product (GDP) by 3.5 percent in the coming year due to among other things, “renewed domestic and external shocks (inflation surge, erratic rainfall, electricity shortages, and Russia’s war in Ukraine) … adversely affecting economic and social conditions.”

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“These multiple shocks will continue to weigh on Zimbabwe’s growth prospects,” the IMF said in December.Odds stacked against economy

Analysts say years of economic mismanagement under Zimbabwe’s first leader, Robert Mugabe and later under his predecessor Emmerson Mnangagwa, have stymied the economy, further exacerbated by hyperinflation and the currency devaluing rapidly.

For Gift Mugano, a visiting professor of economics at the University of Zimbabwe Business School, the country’s 2023 economic outlook is gloomy.

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“The year 2023 will be very dire, driven by spill-over effects of difficulties we encountered in 2022,” he told Al Jazeera.

ture, the local currency is expected to continuously weaken against leading currencies this festive season and into the next year.

In November, inflation stood at 255 percent, one of the highest in the world. But Mugano predicts that inflation and exchange rate could more than double by the second quarter of 2023.

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Furthermore, there are fears that while the central bank continues to dictate the exchange rate, there is no hope for convertibility determined by free market conditions.

bility through the liberalisation of the foreign exchange market, ensuring the central bank does not print money through quasi-fiscal operations, maintain tight monetary policy stance and wind down the use of gold coins.

But economists doubt authorities will heed the advice.

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“Zimbabwe is entering a very volatile social and economic period which needs level political minded leaders to handle this with care but I don’t see [the authorities] having that capacity to think straight in terms of management of the affairs of Zimbabwe,” Mugano said.

The war in Ukraine and high inflation have also affected the agriculture sector. In Zimbabwe which relies on fertiliser imports from Ukraine, prices shot up from $28 to approximately $55 per 50-kilogramme (11-pound) bag, pushing bread, an everyday staple above the reach of many residents.

There is also the matter of power cuts nationwide occasioned by reduced electricity generation at its hydroelectric power plant, Kariba Power Station, owing to low dam water levels.

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As a result, industries and households have been bearing the brunt of rolling power outages that last for as much as 20 hours on a daily basis.Authorities hope refurbishment work at its Hwange Thermal Power Plant will add 300 megawatts to the national grid by the end of the first quarter of 2023.

Zimbabwe, which has traditionally relied on power imports from South Africa, Mozambique and Zambia, is now in a quandary because the region is also grappling with an enormous power deficit.

Politics and policies

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A lot also hinges on the looming general elections.Mnangagwa, who has been president since November 2017, is expected to put a bid in for a second term but is facing stiff opposition.

Opposition leader Nelson Chamisa rallied the Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) to win 19 out of the 28 seats in the parliamentary by-elections. Even though the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) still holds a parliamentary majority, analysts said CCC’s showing might be a foretaste of how it might perform in the 2023 presidential election.

In February, 37 opposition supporters were arrested at a rally and there have been other incidents of violence against dissidents in recent months.

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Independent political analyst, is almost certain of heightened political instability in the months leading to the polls and after.

Given the high political stakes of the coming election, Mnangagwa seems set to pull all the stops to retain the presidency, he said.

“I think 2023 spells political doom for Zimbabwe as there is a high likelihood of politically motivated violence in by-elections but likely to intensify towards the local council, parliamentary and presidential polls,” he told Al Jazeera.

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“I think ZANU-PF will attempt as much as possible to stop any campaigns by the opposition be it in urban and rural areas using the security structures and also party militias,” Mukundu added. “This is a zero-sum political game and election for Mnangagwa that he wants to win at any cost.”

The Crisis Coalition of Zimbabwe, a grouping of more than 80 non-governmental organisations in the country, has gone as far as to warn that the coming election could become the bloodiest in Zimbabwe’s history.

“In fact, as we edge towards 2023, we think it (political violence) is going to [get much worse],” Crisis Coalition of Zimbabwe’s Chairman Peter Mutasa said.

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Analysts say Chamisa and the opposition will be hoping that the electorate can vote to show sufficient disappointment with the levity that the government has treated them.

And there is historical precedent to give them hope.

In the 2008 election, Mugabe lost to the late opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai when a historic hyperinflation of more than 1,000 percent wrecked the economy.

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As it was then, the economy is again in freefall. If the Mnangagwa administration wins, Mugano warns, it could use economic policies at will to bend the situation to ZANU-PF’s advantage.

“If Zanu wins the poll, for instance, they will continue with their command economics and will continue on that path of runaway inflation,” he said-AL JAZEERA

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Tuberculosis treatment in jeopardy as Zimbabwe loses US Aid

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Natasha Gwashure holds her son, Anashe, who is receiving free tuberculosis treatment at Beatrice Road Infectious Diseases Hospital in Harare. The hospital, which has relied on USAID funding for TB treatment, faces uncertainty following a US aid freeze.

BY LINDA MUJURU

Natasha Gwashure watches as tuberculosis ravages her 1-year-old son Anashe’s frail body. He has been ill for more than a month. Gwashure struggles to accept the diagnosis. Her only solace is that they have access to free medication.

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“Without this support, the chances of defaulting on treatment because of monetary constraints would have been significantly higher,” she says.

 

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For years, the United States Agency for International Development has stood at the front lines of Zimbabwe’s TB battle, providing critical support for detection, treatment and prevention. But this lifeline now hangs in the balance as a US executive order threatens to undermine years of progress, potentially forcing patients, like Gwashure’s son, to abandon lifesaving treatments.

 

TB is a particularly vicious illness. Left untreated, the mortality rate is about 50%. It spreads easily, when an infected person coughs or sneezes, or even sings or speaks.

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US President Donald Trump issued an executive order on Jan. 20, his first day in office, to suspend nearly all international aid. That includes USAID programs, which administer lifesaving health and other services around the world.

 

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The recent funding freeze leaves a huge gap in Zimbabwe, where nearly all funding for TB treatment comes from international donors. Just 4% of that funding is domestic.

 

In 2024, USAID allocated 7 million United States dollars for TB treatment, screening and other necessary interventions in Zimbabwe. Despite decades of medical advances, tuberculosis still rampages across the globe. TB affected 10.8 million people in 2023; 1.3 million of those were children.

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In Zimbabwe, the battle against TB reveals a health care system struggling to keep up. In 2021, just a little over half of an estimated 30,000 new infections received treatment.

 

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The human cost of scrapping USAID programs is already evident here. Hospitals that once benefited from US-backed health programs now face mounting pressure as health workers supported by these initiatives have been forced to stop working.

 

A local nurse, who requested anonymity for fear of retribution, says it’s strained an already overextended health care system. She says that nurses previously funded by USAID-backed organizations, who primarily cared for patients with HIV, TB and other diseases, have stopped reporting to work. And what used to be handled by a full team of nurses is now falling on just a handful.

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The freeze has begun dismantling Zimbabwe’s TB care network. New Start Centre — once a cornerstone facility, providing essential CD4 count testing, TB screening, diagnosis and counseling — has already gone dark, its doors closed as funding runs dry.

 

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Noah Taruberekera, executive director of Population Solutions for Health, which has relied on USAID support for these centers, acknowledges the dire challenges now confronting patients and health care providers. He says he is not authorized to share additional details.

 

The funding crisis ripples beyond TB control, casting a shadow over HIV programs — a critical concern since TB preys particularly on those with HIV. While effective antiretroviral therapy can reduce the risk of developing TB, ongoing screening and preventive measures are vital for those with HIV.

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HIV co-infection affects 68% of TB cases in Zimbabwe, but the national government covers only 7% of the required TB budget. International donors contribute 60%, leaving a significant funding gap.

 

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Despite the mounting challenges, Dr. Fungai Kavenga, deputy director of TB and prevention control in the government’s Ministry of Health and Child Care, remains hopeful.

 

“If donor support diminishes, I am confident that the government of Zimbabwe can still ensure a steady supply of treatment for TB patients,” he says.

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But Barbara Samu, a TB patient receiving care at Beatrice Road Infectious Diseases Hospital, underscores the critical role of donor support. She received free medication because USAID supported the hospital.

 

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“I can’t even begin to imagine where I would find the money for treatment,” she says. “I would be facing a death sentence.”

 

Global Press is an award-winning international news publication with more than 40 independent newsrooms in Africa, Asia and Latin America.

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Hwange mourns the loss of Africa’s giant: Big Charlie Nyoni

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BY NOKUTHABA DLAMINI 

The community of Hwange is in mourning after the passing of Charles Nyoni, affectionately known as Big Charlie, a giant of a man who stood at an astonishing 2.10 meters tall and weighed 288kg.

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Big Charlie’s demise yesterday has sent shockwaves throughout the nation, with many remembering him as a gentle giant and a local icon. His larger-than-life personality and towering physique earned him the title of Hwange’s own Goliath and possibly the biggest man in Africa.

According to a close relative, Big Charlie was admitted to St. Patrick’s Hospital last Friday, where he succumbed to his long-standing health issues. He had been battling gigantism, acromegaly, high blood pressure, and diabetes in recent years.

The Office of the MP for Hwange Central constituency has issued a statement confirming Big Charlie’s passing and appealing for urgent financial assistance to cover his medical expenses. The community is rallying around the Nyoni family, with many calling for support to help with the burial costs.

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“Big Charlie was more than just a local celebrity; he was a symbol of hope and resilience for our community,” said Daniel Molokele, Hon. MP for Hwange Central constituency. “We urge everyone to come together and support the Nyoni family during this difficult time.”

As the community comes to terms with the loss of this giant of a man, memories of his infectious smile, kindness, and generosity continue to flood social media. Big Charlie’s legacy will undoubtedly live on, inspiring future generations with his remarkable story.

The family has appealed for donations to help with the burial expenses. Those wishing to contribute can contact Florence Sibanda on 078 732 8056.

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ZIMRA customs officer appears in court for criminal abuse of office

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BY STAFF REPORTER 

A Zimbabwe Revenue Authority (ZIMRA) customs officer, Phillip Kuvenga, has been accused of criminal abuse of office for allegedly assisting in the importation of banned motor vehicles.

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Kuvenga, 28, who is stationed at Victoria Falls, allegedly received documents from clients, completed valuation sheets, and carried out the valuation process. However, he is accused of endorsing different chassis numbers to deceive his supervisors during the validation and approval process.

After obtaining approval, Kuvenga would capture the correct chassis numbers in the ASYCUDA World System. He would then alter or replace the documents submitted earlier to his supervisors.

The offense came to light when a motor vehicle that had not yet arrived in Zimbabwe was found to have been already registered. A thorough check by ZIMRA led to Kuvenga’s arrest.

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Kuvenga appeared in court on February 1, where he was denied bail by Magistrate Gift Manyka. He is expected to appear in court again today for another bail hearing.

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