Connect with us

Slider

Analysts predict economic struggles for Zimbabwe in 2023

Published

on

BY CHRIS MURONZI

In December inflation in Zimbabwe peaked at 280 percent, one of the highest rates globally. The Zimbabwean dollar also weakened, trading at 930 to the US dollar on the parallel market – a steep decline after two months of relative stability at 700 to $1.

Advertisement

This led to plummeting living standards in the Southern African country where 7.9 million people, amounting to half of the population, fell into extreme poverty between 2011 to 2022.

Ahead of the crunch 2023 presidential elections, proposed currency reforms by the incumbent Emmerson Mnangagwa’s administration have already been put on hold.Unsurprisingly economists, political scientists and multilateral institutions are sounding the alarm that the trend of declining economic fundamentals could continue till next year.

During a recent visit to the country, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted a further fall in the gross domestic product (GDP) by 3.5 percent in the coming year due to among other things, “renewed domestic and external shocks (inflation surge, erratic rainfall, electricity shortages, and Russia’s war in Ukraine) … adversely affecting economic and social conditions.”

Advertisement

“These multiple shocks will continue to weigh on Zimbabwe’s growth prospects,” the IMF said in December.Odds stacked against economy

Analysts say years of economic mismanagement under Zimbabwe’s first leader, Robert Mugabe and later under his predecessor Emmerson Mnangagwa, have stymied the economy, further exacerbated by hyperinflation and the currency devaluing rapidly.

For Gift Mugano, a visiting professor of economics at the University of Zimbabwe Business School, the country’s 2023 economic outlook is gloomy.

Advertisement

“The year 2023 will be very dire, driven by spill-over effects of difficulties we encountered in 2022,” he told Al Jazeera.

ture, the local currency is expected to continuously weaken against leading currencies this festive season and into the next year.

In November, inflation stood at 255 percent, one of the highest in the world. But Mugano predicts that inflation and exchange rate could more than double by the second quarter of 2023.

Advertisement

Furthermore, there are fears that while the central bank continues to dictate the exchange rate, there is no hope for convertibility determined by free market conditions.

bility through the liberalisation of the foreign exchange market, ensuring the central bank does not print money through quasi-fiscal operations, maintain tight monetary policy stance and wind down the use of gold coins.

But economists doubt authorities will heed the advice.

Advertisement

“Zimbabwe is entering a very volatile social and economic period which needs level political minded leaders to handle this with care but I don’t see [the authorities] having that capacity to think straight in terms of management of the affairs of Zimbabwe,” Mugano said.

The war in Ukraine and high inflation have also affected the agriculture sector. In Zimbabwe which relies on fertiliser imports from Ukraine, prices shot up from $28 to approximately $55 per 50-kilogramme (11-pound) bag, pushing bread, an everyday staple above the reach of many residents.

There is also the matter of power cuts nationwide occasioned by reduced electricity generation at its hydroelectric power plant, Kariba Power Station, owing to low dam water levels.

Advertisement

As a result, industries and households have been bearing the brunt of rolling power outages that last for as much as 20 hours on a daily basis.Authorities hope refurbishment work at its Hwange Thermal Power Plant will add 300 megawatts to the national grid by the end of the first quarter of 2023.

Zimbabwe, which has traditionally relied on power imports from South Africa, Mozambique and Zambia, is now in a quandary because the region is also grappling with an enormous power deficit.

Politics and policies

Advertisement

A lot also hinges on the looming general elections.Mnangagwa, who has been president since November 2017, is expected to put a bid in for a second term but is facing stiff opposition.

Opposition leader Nelson Chamisa rallied the Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) to win 19 out of the 28 seats in the parliamentary by-elections. Even though the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) still holds a parliamentary majority, analysts said CCC’s showing might be a foretaste of how it might perform in the 2023 presidential election.

In February, 37 opposition supporters were arrested at a rally and there have been other incidents of violence against dissidents in recent months.

Advertisement

Independent political analyst, is almost certain of heightened political instability in the months leading to the polls and after.

Given the high political stakes of the coming election, Mnangagwa seems set to pull all the stops to retain the presidency, he said.

“I think 2023 spells political doom for Zimbabwe as there is a high likelihood of politically motivated violence in by-elections but likely to intensify towards the local council, parliamentary and presidential polls,” he told Al Jazeera.

Advertisement

“I think ZANU-PF will attempt as much as possible to stop any campaigns by the opposition be it in urban and rural areas using the security structures and also party militias,” Mukundu added. “This is a zero-sum political game and election for Mnangagwa that he wants to win at any cost.”

The Crisis Coalition of Zimbabwe, a grouping of more than 80 non-governmental organisations in the country, has gone as far as to warn that the coming election could become the bloodiest in Zimbabwe’s history.

“In fact, as we edge towards 2023, we think it (political violence) is going to [get much worse],” Crisis Coalition of Zimbabwe’s Chairman Peter Mutasa said.

Advertisement

Analysts say Chamisa and the opposition will be hoping that the electorate can vote to show sufficient disappointment with the levity that the government has treated them.

And there is historical precedent to give them hope.

In the 2008 election, Mugabe lost to the late opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai when a historic hyperinflation of more than 1,000 percent wrecked the economy.

Advertisement

As it was then, the economy is again in freefall. If the Mnangagwa administration wins, Mugano warns, it could use economic policies at will to bend the situation to ZANU-PF’s advantage.

“If Zanu wins the poll, for instance, they will continue with their command economics and will continue on that path of runaway inflation,” he said-AL JAZEERA

Advertisement
Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Slider

Zimbabwe’s new mothers face extortion for ‘free’ child health cards

Published

on

Photo credit: Gamuchirai Masiyiwa, GPJ Zimbabwe

BY GAMUCHIRAI MASIYIWA

Summary: The quiet return of maternity fees and the black-market sale of essential documents put extra burdens on mothers as they struggle to navigate a broken system.

Advertisement

First-time mother Connie Jowastands with her 3-month-old baby nestled against her back, chatting with other mothers in line. Like many women at this crowded clinic in Harare’s Mabvuku suburb, Jowa is trying to get a Child Health Card, which was unavailable when she gave birth at a public hospital, and was still out of reach at her local clinic. Health cards are mysteriously out of stock.

 

But they can be bought under the table, if you know who to ask and are willing to pay.

Advertisement

 

Zimbabwe’s Child Health Cards, meant to be free to new mothers, are crucial documents that track babies’ growth, vaccinations and medical histories. Without them, each clinic visit becomes a reset button. Inquiry into the child’s medical history starts from scratch. Since July 2024, the cards have disappeared from health facilities across Harare’s central hospitals and 42 council clinics — even though the card’s producers say they’re making enough to meet demand. This artificial shortage has birthed a shadow market where clinic staff quietly sell this essential document to desperate mothers. This sort of nickel-and-dime bribery exposes deep cracks in a health care system that’s already failing the most vulnerable people.

 

Advertisement

What started as a clandestine operation has become an open secret.

 

“When cards arrive at a clinic, they’re kept by the sister in charge. But it’s usually nurse aides or junior staff who sell them, working in cahoots with other staff members,” says Simbarashe James Tafirenyika, who leads the Zimbabwe Municipality’s Nurses and Allied Workers Union.

Advertisement

 

Someone who sells 100 cards can pocket around US$500, she says, and none of that money goes to the government of the council.

 

Advertisement

The going rate for the Child Health Card is US$5, say several mothers who spoke to Global Press Journal.

 

Medical Histories on Scraps of Paper

Advertisement

 

When the system works as designed, every mother receives a Child Health Card when her baby is born. Now, most mothers must track their infants’ medical histories on scraps of paper.

 

Advertisement

Harare’s council clinics alone deliver more than 3,000 babies every month, with each mother left scrambling for documentation.

 

“I feel hurt,” Jowa says. “I want to know what vaccines my child has received and their purposes, but I just can’t get that information.”

Advertisement

 

A nurse aide assistant at one of the council clinics has witnessed this shadow market.

 

Advertisement

“If a nurse is selling, they ask the mother to be ‘skillful’ if they need the card,” says the assistant, who requested anonymity for fear of retribution. In Zimbabwe, “skillful” is a common euphemism for paying small bribes.

 

While the Ministry of Health and Child Care is supposed to supply the cards for free, Prosper Chonzi, the City of Harare’s director of health, admits supplies have been erratic for six months and that people have complained about being forced to purchase these cards. Clinic workers may be exploiting the known shortage and coordinating among themselves to sell the cards rather than providing them for free, he says.

Advertisement

 

“We can’t rule that out,” he says.

 

Advertisement

The card shortage coincides with the quiet return of maternity fees in public hospitals. Though not officially announced, hospitals have begun billing mothers after delivery — a policy change the government would neither confirm nor deny.

 

High Inflation, More Corruption

Advertisement

 

Between 2011 and 2024, more than 1 million pregnant women in the country delivered babies for free at health care clinics, under a scheme called results-based financing. Maternal mortality rates dropped during that time.

 

Advertisement

But these gains, partly achieved through better access to safe delivery services, face new hurdles as budget constraints and economic pressures reshape the health care landscape.

 

Even in 2021, a study from Transparency International Zimbabwe surveyed over 1,000 people in Zimbabwe and found that 74% had been asked to pay a bribe while trying to access health care services. A feeling of being underpaid amidst a deteriorating economy and high inflation was a key driver among health workers who solicitated bribes, which has been a rising trend, according to the study.

Advertisement

 

“The motivation for earning an extra income is strong especially in countries with a high rate of inflation,” the study states.

 

Advertisement

Zimbabwe’s health care system faces chronic challenges, including an exodus of health workers to other countries, inadequate funding, drug shortages, obsolete infrastructure and more. In 1991, the government introduced user fees across public institutions as part of an economic structural adjustment program. The government abolished the fees in 2011, only to partially reinstate them around 2013.

 

Prudence Hanyani, a community activist in Harare, says the reintroduction of user fees in public hospitals will burden women who already shoulder extra costs, like paying for midwives, so they can get better treatment when giving birth.

Advertisement

 

“Maternal health services should be free,” she says, “because giving birth is a service for the nation that contributes to the country’s population.”

 

Advertisement

Mothers Pay the Price

 

Valerie Shangwa, who gave birth four and a half months ago at a private maternity hospital, still has no card for her daughter.

Advertisement

 

“You know how difficult it is to keep a paper,” she says. “When nurses ask about last month’s weight, you end up guessing, and that distorts the whole record.”

 

Advertisement

Charlton Prickise, technical director at Print Flow, says his company sells Child Health Cards only to government-authorized health facilities and faces no shortages.

 

“The shortages mean health facilities simply aren’t coming to get them,” he says.

Advertisement

 

Though Print Flow hasn’t detected leaks, Prickise recalls finding other versions of this card on the market two years ago, possibly from a nongovernmental organization. Print Flow isn’t the sole supplier of the cards, and they haven’t received any government orders recently.

 

Advertisement

In a written response to Global Press Journal, Donald Mujiri, spokesperson for the Ministry of Health and Child Care, said the shortage of Child Health Cards is due to supply chain inefficiencies and insufficient donor funding. The cards, he says, are procured with government funding and aid from supporting partners such as the United Nations Children’s Fund. Nevertheless, Mujiri says, the ministry needs to strengthen the supply chain management system at all levels and proactively mobilize resources for procuring the cards.

 

Meanwhile, mothers wait — or pay the price. Faith Musinami, 26, delivered her daughter in July 2024. An orderly told her the clinic only had cards for boys, but if she wanted, they could organize one for US$5. Musinami had not budgeted for the cost. She sacrificed the last penny she had.

Advertisement

This story was originally published by Global Press Journal.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

National

Ranger killed by elephant in Kariba

Published

on

BY NOKUTHABA DLAMINI 

A 62-year-old ranger, Josphat Mandishara, was tragically killed by an elephant in Kariba yesterday.

Advertisement

Mandishara, who worked for the Zimbabwe Parks and Wildlife Management Authority (ZimParks), was on patrol in the Gatche-gatche area with fellow rangers and police officers.

At around 10 pm, Mandishara returned to the harbor where their boat was docked, and that’s when he encountered the elephant. The elephant charged at him, causing fatal injuries. His colleagues were nearby, resupplying at the Gatche-gatche Irrigation Scheme.

Mandishara’s body was taken to Kariba District Hospital for a post-mortem, and the incident was reported to the police.

Advertisement

ZimParks has sent a team to manage the problem elephant and prevent similar incidents in the future.

The Director General of ZimParks, Prof. Edson Gandiwa, and his team have sent condolences to Mandishara’s family, friends, and colleagues. Mandishara will be remembered for his dedication to wildlife conservation in Zimbabwe.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

In the community

Crocodile attacks claim 9 lives, injure 11

Published

on

BY NOKUTHABA DLAMINI

A surge in crocodile attacks has left a trail of death and destruction in Zimbabwe, with 9 fatalities and 11 injuries reported in the last two months.

Advertisement

According to a statement released by the Zimbabwe Parks and Wildlife Management Authority (ZimParks), 49 human-crocodile conflict cases were recorded during the same period, resulting in the loss of 44 cattle and 60 goats.

The Mid-Zambezi region, which includes Lake Kariba, Angwa River, and Hunyani River, was the hardest hit, with 19 cases reported. The Central region recorded 14 cases, while 16 cases were reported in other areas, including Matopo, Harare, North-West Matabeleland, and South-East Low-veld.

ZimParks has urged communities to exercise extreme caution, especially around water bodies, during the current rain season. The authority has advised communities to ensure that livestock and children are not left unattended near rivers or lakes, and to take precautions when engaging in water activities such as fishing, swimming, and domestic chores.

Advertisement

To mitigate the situation, ZimParks is working closely with local authorities and conservation partners to raise public awareness and promote safety practices. The authority has emphasized its commitment to finding a balance between ensuring public safety and conserving wildlife.

As the situation continues to unfold, ZimParks has appealed to the public to remain vigilant and to report any crocodile sightings or attacks to the authorities.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Trending

Copyright © 2022 VicFallsLive. All rights reserved, powered by Advantage