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Analysts predict economic struggles for Zimbabwe in 2023

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BY CHRIS MURONZI

In December inflation in Zimbabwe peaked at 280 percent, one of the highest rates globally. The Zimbabwean dollar also weakened, trading at 930 to the US dollar on the parallel market – a steep decline after two months of relative stability at 700 to $1.

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This led to plummeting living standards in the Southern African country where 7.9 million people, amounting to half of the population, fell into extreme poverty between 2011 to 2022.

Ahead of the crunch 2023 presidential elections, proposed currency reforms by the incumbent Emmerson Mnangagwa’s administration have already been put on hold.Unsurprisingly economists, political scientists and multilateral institutions are sounding the alarm that the trend of declining economic fundamentals could continue till next year.

During a recent visit to the country, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted a further fall in the gross domestic product (GDP) by 3.5 percent in the coming year due to among other things, “renewed domestic and external shocks (inflation surge, erratic rainfall, electricity shortages, and Russia’s war in Ukraine) … adversely affecting economic and social conditions.”

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“These multiple shocks will continue to weigh on Zimbabwe’s growth prospects,” the IMF said in December.Odds stacked against economy

Analysts say years of economic mismanagement under Zimbabwe’s first leader, Robert Mugabe and later under his predecessor Emmerson Mnangagwa, have stymied the economy, further exacerbated by hyperinflation and the currency devaluing rapidly.

For Gift Mugano, a visiting professor of economics at the University of Zimbabwe Business School, the country’s 2023 economic outlook is gloomy.

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“The year 2023 will be very dire, driven by spill-over effects of difficulties we encountered in 2022,” he told Al Jazeera.

ture, the local currency is expected to continuously weaken against leading currencies this festive season and into the next year.

In November, inflation stood at 255 percent, one of the highest in the world. But Mugano predicts that inflation and exchange rate could more than double by the second quarter of 2023.

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Furthermore, there are fears that while the central bank continues to dictate the exchange rate, there is no hope for convertibility determined by free market conditions.

bility through the liberalisation of the foreign exchange market, ensuring the central bank does not print money through quasi-fiscal operations, maintain tight monetary policy stance and wind down the use of gold coins.

But economists doubt authorities will heed the advice.

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“Zimbabwe is entering a very volatile social and economic period which needs level political minded leaders to handle this with care but I don’t see [the authorities] having that capacity to think straight in terms of management of the affairs of Zimbabwe,” Mugano said.

The war in Ukraine and high inflation have also affected the agriculture sector. In Zimbabwe which relies on fertiliser imports from Ukraine, prices shot up from $28 to approximately $55 per 50-kilogramme (11-pound) bag, pushing bread, an everyday staple above the reach of many residents.

There is also the matter of power cuts nationwide occasioned by reduced electricity generation at its hydroelectric power plant, Kariba Power Station, owing to low dam water levels.

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As a result, industries and households have been bearing the brunt of rolling power outages that last for as much as 20 hours on a daily basis.Authorities hope refurbishment work at its Hwange Thermal Power Plant will add 300 megawatts to the national grid by the end of the first quarter of 2023.

Zimbabwe, which has traditionally relied on power imports from South Africa, Mozambique and Zambia, is now in a quandary because the region is also grappling with an enormous power deficit.

Politics and policies

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A lot also hinges on the looming general elections.Mnangagwa, who has been president since November 2017, is expected to put a bid in for a second term but is facing stiff opposition.

Opposition leader Nelson Chamisa rallied the Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) to win 19 out of the 28 seats in the parliamentary by-elections. Even though the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) still holds a parliamentary majority, analysts said CCC’s showing might be a foretaste of how it might perform in the 2023 presidential election.

In February, 37 opposition supporters were arrested at a rally and there have been other incidents of violence against dissidents in recent months.

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Independent political analyst, is almost certain of heightened political instability in the months leading to the polls and after.

Given the high political stakes of the coming election, Mnangagwa seems set to pull all the stops to retain the presidency, he said.

“I think 2023 spells political doom for Zimbabwe as there is a high likelihood of politically motivated violence in by-elections but likely to intensify towards the local council, parliamentary and presidential polls,” he told Al Jazeera.

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“I think ZANU-PF will attempt as much as possible to stop any campaigns by the opposition be it in urban and rural areas using the security structures and also party militias,” Mukundu added. “This is a zero-sum political game and election for Mnangagwa that he wants to win at any cost.”

The Crisis Coalition of Zimbabwe, a grouping of more than 80 non-governmental organisations in the country, has gone as far as to warn that the coming election could become the bloodiest in Zimbabwe’s history.

“In fact, as we edge towards 2023, we think it (political violence) is going to [get much worse],” Crisis Coalition of Zimbabwe’s Chairman Peter Mutasa said.

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Analysts say Chamisa and the opposition will be hoping that the electorate can vote to show sufficient disappointment with the levity that the government has treated them.

And there is historical precedent to give them hope.

In the 2008 election, Mugabe lost to the late opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai when a historic hyperinflation of more than 1,000 percent wrecked the economy.

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As it was then, the economy is again in freefall. If the Mnangagwa administration wins, Mugano warns, it could use economic policies at will to bend the situation to ZANU-PF’s advantage.

“If Zanu wins the poll, for instance, they will continue with their command economics and will continue on that path of runaway inflation,” he said-AL JAZEERA

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National

Coal train in flames: NRZ locomotive damaged in fire incident

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BY WANDILE TSHUMA 

A National Railways of Zimbabwe (NRZ) locomotive suffered significant damage after catching fire while transporting export coal to Zambi. The incident occurred between Kalala and Matetsi sidings, resulting in the explosion of the locomotive’s fuel tanks.

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According to the NRZ press statement on Monday, “A National Railways of Zimbabwe locomotive suffered some damages after it caught fire this afternoon while transporting export coal to Zambia.” Fortunately, the crew members on board managed to escape unharmed.

The NRZ responded swiftly to the incident, dispatching a rescue train with crews to the site. The team successfully extinguished the fire, preventing further damage. However, the locomotive itself sustained considerable damage.

The cause of the fire is yet to be determined, with investigations currently underway. “Investigations are already underway to establish the cause of the fire and the amount of damage to the locomotive,” the NRZ statement read.

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In the community

Human-wildlife conflict claims 18 lives in Zimbabwe’s first quarter

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BY NOKUTHABA DLAMINI 

The Zimbabwe Parks and Wildlife Management Authority (ZimParks) has reported a disturbing trend of human-wildlife conflict in the country’s first quarter of 2025. According to the authority, 18 people have lost their lives, and 32 others have been injured in encounters with wildlife.

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ZimParks spokesperson Tinashe Farawo revealed that the authority received 579 cases of human-wildlife conflict, which they managed to respond to promptly. The incidents have also resulted in significant livestock losses, with at least 53 cattle and 85 goats killed by wildlife.

The districts most affected by these incidents include Binga, Hwange, Kariba, Chiredzi, Hurungwe, Nyaminyami, and Mbire. ZimParks has been working tirelessly to raise awareness about wildlife behaviors and effective preventive measures in these areas.

In response to the crisis, ZimParks has translocated 129 animals back into protected areas and eliminated 158 animals deemed problematic.

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“We encourage communities to continue reporting incidents to ZimParks Problem Animal Control numbers and local leadership, such as Councillors, Traditional Leaders, and Rural District Council Authorities, to ensure that we preserve lives,” Farawo urged.

The significant increase in livestock losses, with cattle deaths rising from 18 to 53 and goat deaths from 21 to 85 compared to the same period in 2024, highlights the growing challenge of human-wildlife conflict in Zimbabwe.

ZimParks’ efforts to mitigate the conflict include community initiatives to educate people on managing wildlife encounters effectively.

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Tens of Thousands in Zimbabwe Go Hungry as the Rains — and US Aid — Hold Back

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Tanayeishe Musau eats baobab porridge after school at his home in Mudzi, Zimbabwe, where the dish has become a daily staple amid worsening drought and hunger. Once a simple supplement, baobab porridge is now a primary meal for families like his, following widespread food shortages and the suspension of international aid.

BY LINDA MUJURU

This story was originally published by Global Press Journal.

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Agnes Tauzeni stands on her parched field. She is a mother to two children, and is expecting another. But now, in a time that might otherwise have been joyful, her hopes wither like the struggling crops before her.

 

Three times she’s gambled on the rains; three times the sky has betrayed her. Her first two plantings failed. The soil was too dry to sustain life. Though her third attempt yielded a few weak shoots, they offered little promise of a meaningful harvest. El Niño-driven droughts have disrupted once-reliable rains, leaving Tauzeni’s family and many like hers struggling to feed themselves.

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“I am always hungry,” Tauzeni says.

 

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She worries about the health of her unborn child, based on how little nutrition she consumes herself.

 

Adding to this, food aid, previously funded by the US Agency for International Development, halted suddenly in January. That transformed what was already a struggle into a desperate battle for survival.

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The food aid ended when US President Donald Trump, on his first day in office, issued an executive order that paused nearly all US foreign aid, most of which was administered by USAID. That agency is now all but defunct.

 

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Food aid in Zimbabwe was an ongoing area of funding for USAID. In November 2024, the agency announced $130 million for two seven-year programs, implemented by CARE and Cultivating New Frontiers in Agriculture, that would provide food aid and other related support to areas of Zimbabwe most in need. The programs, which stopped, were just part of an ongoing slate of activities designed to help Zimbabwe’s neediest people.

 

About 7.6 million people in Zimbabwe — nearly half the country’s population — need humanitarian assistance, according to a 2025 UNICEF report. Of those, nearly 6 million, like Tauzeni, rely on subsistence farming.

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Through the support of organizations with funding from USAID, people previously received cereals, edible seeds, oil and food vouchers.

 

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“A sudden withdrawal can put the entire community in a dire situation,” says Hilton Mbozi, a seed systems and climate change expert.

 

Tauzeni recalls that her community used to receive food supplies such as beans, cooking oil and peanut butter to help combat malnutrition.

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When Tauzeni got married in 2017, her fields promised abundance. Her harvests were plentiful, and her family never lacked food. Now, those memories feel like whispers from another world. The past two agricultural seasons, those harvests have been devastatingly poor.

 

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With an empty granary and dwindling options, Tauzeni’s family survives on the same food every day: baobab porridge in the morning and sadza with wild okra in the evening. But Tauzeniworries whether even this will be on the table in the coming months.

 

“The little maize I have, I got after weeding someone else’s crops, but that won’t take us far,” she says.

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Tauzeni says a 20-kilogram (44-pound) bag of maize costs US$13 in her village, an amount out of reach for her. Her only source of income is farming. When that fails, she has no money at all.

 

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Hunger like Tauzeni experiences is widespread. Some families now eat just once a day.

 

Headman David Musau, leader of Musau village where Tauzenilives, says some people in his village did not plant any seeds this season, fearing losses due to the low rainfall. The government provides food aid inconsistently, usually 7 kilograms (15 pounds) of wheat per person for three months.

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“It’s not enough, but it helps,” he says.

 

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But without any other food aid, survival is at stake, he says. “People will die in the near future.”

 

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