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Analysts predict economic struggles for Zimbabwe in 2023

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BY CHRIS MURONZI

In December inflation in Zimbabwe peaked at 280 percent, one of the highest rates globally. The Zimbabwean dollar also weakened, trading at 930 to the US dollar on the parallel market – a steep decline after two months of relative stability at 700 to $1.

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This led to plummeting living standards in the Southern African country where 7.9 million people, amounting to half of the population, fell into extreme poverty between 2011 to 2022.

Ahead of the crunch 2023 presidential elections, proposed currency reforms by the incumbent Emmerson Mnangagwa’s administration have already been put on hold.Unsurprisingly economists, political scientists and multilateral institutions are sounding the alarm that the trend of declining economic fundamentals could continue till next year.

During a recent visit to the country, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted a further fall in the gross domestic product (GDP) by 3.5 percent in the coming year due to among other things, “renewed domestic and external shocks (inflation surge, erratic rainfall, electricity shortages, and Russia’s war in Ukraine) … adversely affecting economic and social conditions.”

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“These multiple shocks will continue to weigh on Zimbabwe’s growth prospects,” the IMF said in December.Odds stacked against economy

Analysts say years of economic mismanagement under Zimbabwe’s first leader, Robert Mugabe and later under his predecessor Emmerson Mnangagwa, have stymied the economy, further exacerbated by hyperinflation and the currency devaluing rapidly.

For Gift Mugano, a visiting professor of economics at the University of Zimbabwe Business School, the country’s 2023 economic outlook is gloomy.

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“The year 2023 will be very dire, driven by spill-over effects of difficulties we encountered in 2022,” he told Al Jazeera.

ture, the local currency is expected to continuously weaken against leading currencies this festive season and into the next year.

In November, inflation stood at 255 percent, one of the highest in the world. But Mugano predicts that inflation and exchange rate could more than double by the second quarter of 2023.

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Furthermore, there are fears that while the central bank continues to dictate the exchange rate, there is no hope for convertibility determined by free market conditions.

bility through the liberalisation of the foreign exchange market, ensuring the central bank does not print money through quasi-fiscal operations, maintain tight monetary policy stance and wind down the use of gold coins.

But economists doubt authorities will heed the advice.

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“Zimbabwe is entering a very volatile social and economic period which needs level political minded leaders to handle this with care but I don’t see [the authorities] having that capacity to think straight in terms of management of the affairs of Zimbabwe,” Mugano said.

The war in Ukraine and high inflation have also affected the agriculture sector. In Zimbabwe which relies on fertiliser imports from Ukraine, prices shot up from $28 to approximately $55 per 50-kilogramme (11-pound) bag, pushing bread, an everyday staple above the reach of many residents.

There is also the matter of power cuts nationwide occasioned by reduced electricity generation at its hydroelectric power plant, Kariba Power Station, owing to low dam water levels.

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As a result, industries and households have been bearing the brunt of rolling power outages that last for as much as 20 hours on a daily basis.Authorities hope refurbishment work at its Hwange Thermal Power Plant will add 300 megawatts to the national grid by the end of the first quarter of 2023.

Zimbabwe, which has traditionally relied on power imports from South Africa, Mozambique and Zambia, is now in a quandary because the region is also grappling with an enormous power deficit.

Politics and policies

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A lot also hinges on the looming general elections.Mnangagwa, who has been president since November 2017, is expected to put a bid in for a second term but is facing stiff opposition.

Opposition leader Nelson Chamisa rallied the Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) to win 19 out of the 28 seats in the parliamentary by-elections. Even though the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) still holds a parliamentary majority, analysts said CCC’s showing might be a foretaste of how it might perform in the 2023 presidential election.

In February, 37 opposition supporters were arrested at a rally and there have been other incidents of violence against dissidents in recent months.

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Independent political analyst, is almost certain of heightened political instability in the months leading to the polls and after.

Given the high political stakes of the coming election, Mnangagwa seems set to pull all the stops to retain the presidency, he said.

“I think 2023 spells political doom for Zimbabwe as there is a high likelihood of politically motivated violence in by-elections but likely to intensify towards the local council, parliamentary and presidential polls,” he told Al Jazeera.

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“I think ZANU-PF will attempt as much as possible to stop any campaigns by the opposition be it in urban and rural areas using the security structures and also party militias,” Mukundu added. “This is a zero-sum political game and election for Mnangagwa that he wants to win at any cost.”

The Crisis Coalition of Zimbabwe, a grouping of more than 80 non-governmental organisations in the country, has gone as far as to warn that the coming election could become the bloodiest in Zimbabwe’s history.

“In fact, as we edge towards 2023, we think it (political violence) is going to [get much worse],” Crisis Coalition of Zimbabwe’s Chairman Peter Mutasa said.

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Analysts say Chamisa and the opposition will be hoping that the electorate can vote to show sufficient disappointment with the levity that the government has treated them.

And there is historical precedent to give them hope.

In the 2008 election, Mugabe lost to the late opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai when a historic hyperinflation of more than 1,000 percent wrecked the economy.

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As it was then, the economy is again in freefall. If the Mnangagwa administration wins, Mugano warns, it could use economic policies at will to bend the situation to ZANU-PF’s advantage.

“If Zanu wins the poll, for instance, they will continue with their command economics and will continue on that path of runaway inflation,” he said-AL JAZEERA

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In the community

MPs raise alarm over illegal gold mining threatening Inyathi hospital

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BY NOKUTHABA DLAMINI 

The Parliamentary Portfolio Committee on Health and Child Care has raised serious concern over illegal gold mining activities taking place directly beneath Inyathi District Hospital in Bubi District, Matabeleland North — warning that the facility’s infrastructure could collapse if the practice continues unchecked.

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The revelation came during the committee’s ongoing verification visits to rural health centres across Zimbabwe, aimed at assessing the state of medical infrastructure, equipment, and essential drug availability. The visits, led by Hon. Daniel Molokele, are being conducted on behalf of the committee chairperson, Hon. Dr. Thokozani Khupe.

Speaking to VicFallsLive, Molokele said the team was shocked to discover that artisanal miners (amakorokoza) had extended their illegal mining tunnels under the hospital grounds.

“One of the things that we found at Inyathi District Hospital is that amakorokoza are now doing their gold mining right under the hospital,” said Molokele. “They used to do it outside, but now they have gone beneath the facility. There is a real risk that the infrastructure might collapse because of the underground pressure. This is lawlessness that the government urgently needs to address.”

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Molokele added that the situation reflects broader governance and enforcement challenges in mining communities, where unregulated artisanal mining continues to threaten both public safety and environmental health.

“Most of the cases that patients come with are physical wounds — largely injuries from violent clashes among the amakorokoza,” he said. “There’s a lot of violence happening there, and it is putting a heavy burden on an already under-resourced hospital.”

The committee, which began its tour on Monday in Inyathi before proceeding to Avoca in Insiza District (Matabeleland South), Gundura in Masvingo, and Mutiusinazita in Buhera (Manicaland), is compiling findings that will inform parliamentary recommendations.

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“We will produce a report that will have clear recommendations,” Molokele said. “The National Assembly will debate it, and the Minister of Health will use it to engage the Minister of Finance, especially in the upcoming budget process. We are hoping for a renewed focus on rural healthcare centres, which have been neglected and underfunded for many years.”

Molokele said the verification exercise — though limited by time and financial constraints — seeks to highlight conditions in at least one rural health facility per province.

The committee’s findings come at a time when Zimbabwe’s rural health infrastructure is under severe strain, with many facilities struggling with drug shortages, outdated equipment, and deteriorating buildings. The situation in Inyathi now adds a new dimension of danger — where illegal mining is not only threatening livelihoods but also public infrastructure meant to save lives.

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National

Doctors slam delays in using sugar tax funds for cancer treatment equipment

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BY WANDILE TSHUMA 

The Zimbabwe Association of Doctors for Human Rights (ZADHR) has expressed concern over the government’s continued delays in disbursing funds from the Sugar Tax meant for the procurement of cancer treatment equipment.

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In a statement released yesterday , ZADHR said it was deeply worried by the slow pace of progress, two years after the introduction of the levy that was expected to finance the purchase of essential medical equipment for cancer patients across the country.

According to the association, by November last year, the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development had confirmed collecting US$30.8 million through the sugar tax — a surcharge imposed on sugary drinks and beverages. However, no disbursement had yet been made to the Ministry of Health and Child Care for the intended purpose.

“This delay undermines the purpose of the Sugar Tax, which was intended to improve public health outcomes through targeted investment in non-communicable disease management, including cancer prevention and treatment,” ZADHR said.

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Zimbabwe currently bears one of the highest cancer burdens in Southern Africa, with an age-standardised incidence rate of 208 per 100,000 people and a mortality rate of 144 per 100,000, according to Globocan 2022 data. These figures surpass those of neighbouring countries such as South Africa, Namibia, Zambia, and Botswana.

The association warned that the government’s inaction continues to worsen the plight of thousands of patients who face long waiting lists and limited access to treatment.

“The country records over 17,700 new cases and nearly 12,000 deaths annually, largely due to late diagnosis and inadequate treatment capacity,” read the statement. “This growing burden strains Zimbabwe’s fragile health system, escalates household health expenditures, and undermines productivity.”

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ZADHR called on the Ministry of Finance to urgently release the collected funds and for the Health Ministry to ensure transparent procurement and installation processes once funds are received.

The association also urged the Ministry of Health to build technical capacity among staff to maintain and effectively utilise the new equipment once installed.

“Equitable access must be at the centre of this rollout. Beyond the main Central Hospitals, provincial and district centres should also benefit to ensure no patient is left behind,” ZADHR added.

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National

Calls grow for probe into mysterious sudden deaths in Victoria Falls

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BY NOKUTHABA DLAMINI 

Concerns are mounting in Victoria Falls over a reported rise in sudden deaths, with local legislator Vusumuzi Moyo, Member of Parliament for Hwange West, calling for an official probe into what he described as an “alarming trend” of people collapsing and dying unexpectedly.

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During a Parliamentary session on 1 October, Moyo asked the Minister of Health and Child Care, Dr. Douglas Mombeshora, whether the ministry had conducted any research into the increase in such cases. In his response, the Minister said no study had been carried out and that the government had no statistical evidence supporting the reports.

However, speaking to VicFallsLive, Moyo said he raised the issue in Parliament after witnessing and hearing of multiple sudden deaths within the resort city.

“We’ve seen several people who were perfectly fine suddenly collapse and die,” said Moyo. “Two of them were in the tourism industry, and another was a council worker who had just come from night duty. She swept her yard, suddenly felt unwell, and passed away soon after. These are just some of the cases we’ve encountered.”

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Moyo expressed disappointment that the Ministry did not show intent to investigate further, saying he had hoped the Minister would direct provincial or district offices to look into the issue.

“Unfortunately, when the question came up, I was not in the House to follow up,” he said. “But I believe this needs to be pursued. The media and health authorities must take it up so that the executive can act. We cannot be silent when people are dying in such an unusual fashion.”

Moyo also revealed that he had spoken with a local private medical officer, who expressed willingness to support any research effort aimed at uncovering the causes behind the deaths.

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“He told me this might not just be confined to Victoria Falls—it could be a national issue. We’re hearing of similar incidents across the country,” Moyo said.

Local health practitioners and residents have echoed similar concerns, citing an apparent rise in cases of people collapsing at workplaces or at home. While no conclusive evidence has linked the deaths to any particular health condition or environmental factor, the trend has prompted renewed calls for community health surveillance and public awareness on preventive care and early health checkups.

As Zimbabwe continues to grapple with strained health infrastructure and limited diagnostic capacity, Moyo says the issue underscores the need for stronger public health data collection.

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“Without statistics, we cannot know what’s really happening,” he said. “This is a matter of life and death, and the Ministry should be proactive.”

 

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