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Analysts predict economic struggles for Zimbabwe in 2023

Published

2 years ago

January 2, 2023

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BY CHRIS MURONZI

In December inflation in Zimbabwe peaked at 280 percent, one of the highest rates globally. The Zimbabwean dollar also weakened, trading at 930 to the US dollar on the parallel market – a steep decline after two months of relative stability at 700 to $1.

This led to plummeting living standards in the Southern African country where 7.9 million people, amounting to half of the population, fell into extreme poverty between 2011 to 2022.

Ahead of the crunch 2023 presidential elections, proposed currency reforms by the incumbent Emmerson Mnangagwa’s administration have already been put on hold.Unsurprisingly economists, political scientists and multilateral institutions are sounding the alarm that the trend of declining economic fundamentals could continue till next year.

During a recent visit to the country, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted a further fall in the gross domestic product (GDP) by 3.5 percent in the coming year due to among other things, “renewed domestic and external shocks (inflation surge, erratic rainfall, electricity shortages, and Russia’s war in Ukraine) … adversely affecting economic and social conditions.”

“These multiple shocks will continue to weigh on Zimbabwe’s growth prospects,” the IMF said in December.Odds stacked against economy

Analysts say years of economic mismanagement under Zimbabwe’s first leader, Robert Mugabe and later under his predecessor Emmerson Mnangagwa, have stymied the economy, further exacerbated by hyperinflation and the currency devaluing rapidly.

For Gift Mugano, a visiting professor of economics at the University of Zimbabwe Business School, the country’s 2023 economic outlook is gloomy.

“The year 2023 will be very dire, driven by spill-over effects of difficulties we encountered in 2022,” he told Al Jazeera.

ture, the local currency is expected to continuously weaken against leading currencies this festive season and into the next year.

In November, inflation stood at 255 percent, one of the highest in the world. But Mugano predicts that inflation and exchange rate could more than double by the second quarter of 2023.

Furthermore, there are fears that while the central bank continues to dictate the exchange rate, there is no hope for convertibility determined by free market conditions.

bility through the liberalisation of the foreign exchange market, ensuring the central bank does not print money through quasi-fiscal operations, maintain tight monetary policy stance and wind down the use of gold coins.

But economists doubt authorities will heed the advice.

“Zimbabwe is entering a very volatile social and economic period which needs level political minded leaders to handle this with care but I don’t see [the authorities] having that capacity to think straight in terms of management of the affairs of Zimbabwe,” Mugano said.

The war in Ukraine and high inflation have also affected the agriculture sector. In Zimbabwe which relies on fertiliser imports from Ukraine, prices shot up from $28 to approximately $55 per 50-kilogramme (11-pound) bag, pushing bread, an everyday staple above the reach of many residents.

There is also the matter of power cuts nationwide occasioned by reduced electricity generation at its hydroelectric power plant, Kariba Power Station, owing to low dam water levels.

As a result, industries and households have been bearing the brunt of rolling power outages that last for as much as 20 hours on a daily basis.Authorities hope refurbishment work at its Hwange Thermal Power Plant will add 300 megawatts to the national grid by the end of the first quarter of 2023.

Zimbabwe, which has traditionally relied on power imports from South Africa, Mozambique and Zambia, is now in a quandary because the region is also grappling with an enormous power deficit.

Politics and policies

A lot also hinges on the looming general elections.Mnangagwa, who has been president since November 2017, is expected to put a bid in for a second term but is facing stiff opposition.

Opposition leader Nelson Chamisa rallied the Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) to win 19 out of the 28 seats in the parliamentary by-elections. Even though the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) still holds a parliamentary majority, analysts said CCC’s showing might be a foretaste of how it might perform in the 2023 presidential election.

In February, 37 opposition supporters were arrested at a rally and there have been other incidents of violence against dissidents in recent months.

Independent political analyst, is almost certain of heightened political instability in the months leading to the polls and after.

Given the high political stakes of the coming election, Mnangagwa seems set to pull all the stops to retain the presidency, he said.

“I think 2023 spells political doom for Zimbabwe as there is a high likelihood of politically motivated violence in by-elections but likely to intensify towards the local council, parliamentary and presidential polls,” he told Al Jazeera.

“I think ZANU-PF will attempt as much as possible to stop any campaigns by the opposition be it in urban and rural areas using the security structures and also party militias,” Mukundu added. “This is a zero-sum political game and election for Mnangagwa that he wants to win at any cost.”

The Crisis Coalition of Zimbabwe, a grouping of more than 80 non-governmental organisations in the country, has gone as far as to warn that the coming election could become the bloodiest in Zimbabwe’s history.

“In fact, as we edge towards 2023, we think it (political violence) is going to [get much worse],” Crisis Coalition of Zimbabwe’s Chairman Peter Mutasa said.

Analysts say Chamisa and the opposition will be hoping that the electorate can vote to show sufficient disappointment with the levity that the government has treated them.

And there is historical precedent to give them hope.

In the 2008 election, Mugabe lost to the late opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai when a historic hyperinflation of more than 1,000 percent wrecked the economy.

As it was then, the economy is again in freefall. If the Mnangagwa administration wins, Mugano warns, it could use economic policies at will to bend the situation to ZANU-PF’s advantage.

“If Zanu wins the poll, for instance, they will continue with their command economics and will continue on that path of runaway inflation,” he said-AL JAZEERA

Binga

Hope and comfort in hard times: Marvin Dube’s ‘Munoziva Zvose’ releases August 3rd

Published

2 hours ago

July 27, 2024

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BY NOKUTHABA DLAMINI

Meet Marvin Dube, a gospel artist with a voice that can move mountains. Born in Kadoma and raised in various towns across Zimbabwe, Marvin’s roots trace back to Binga Junamina village, where his Tonga heritage runs deep.

Now based in the United Kingdom, Marvin is making waves in the gospel music scene with his latest single, “Munoziva Zvose,” set to release on August 3rd.

The song was born out of a powerful vision shared by Marvin’s friend, Simbayi Zwidza. “He saw a vivid image of God knowing everything we go through, even the things we don’t understand,” Marvin recounts.This message resonated deeply with Marvin, prompting him to write a verse thanking God for his grace in the face of hardship.

“‘Munoziva Zvose’ is a message of hope and comfort,” Marvin explains. “It reminds people that they’re not alone in their struggles. God is with them, knows their struggles, and will answer their prayers.” The song is a testament to Marvin’s artistic vision: using his music to touch lives, heal the brokenhearted, and spread God’s love.

What makes this track even more special is that Marvin is featuring on it alongside Simbayi Zwidza, whose vision inspired the song. “I’m thrilled to be collaborating with Simbayi on this powerful track,” Marvin says. “Together, we’re bringing a message of hope and comfort to those who need it most.”

Marvin Dube

What sets “Munoziva Zvose” apart from Marvin’s previous releases is its deeper, more reverent tone. The song leans towards worship music, encouraging a stronger connection with God. With its powerful melody, strong vocals, and heartfelt lyrics, this song is a blessing for anyone seeking a more profound connection with God, he says.

Marvin’s church, Spoken Ministry, has been incredibly supportive of this project, and he knows it will strengthen and edify the body of Christ. With Simbayi’s gift as a missionary preacher, the song’s potential to reach more people and share the message of faith is amplified.

“This song is a tool for evangelism,” Marvin says. “We plan to use this release to inspire others, share the message of hope, and continue to drive the missionary work we’re passionate about.”

Get ready to be inspired by Marvin Dube’s “Munoziva Zvose,” a song that will resonate with anyone facing difficult times and remind them that God is always with them.

Binga

Food insecurity hits Matabeleland North province amid El Nino crisis

Published

1 day ago

July 26, 2024

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BY NOKUTHABA DLAMINI

A devastating food insecurity crisis has gripped Matabeleland North province, with a staggering 520 524 people struggling to access basic nutrition, according to Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube.

The region has borne the brunt of the severe El Nino effects, leaving a significant portion of the population vulnerable.

Minister Ncube revealed these alarming figures while presenting the mid-term budget, which focuses on addressing the far-reaching consequences of El Nino.

To combat this crisis, Ncube said the government has distributed 1 839.2 metric tonnes of grain, for Matabeleland North, which represents only 16% of the required 11 711.8 metric tonnes needed to sustain the population for three months.

The crisis has reportedly affected a staggering 7.7 million people nationwide, including six million in rural areas and 1.7 million in urban areas, who are projected to face food insecurity in 2024.

Minister Ncube outlined a two-pronged response strategy to address the grain shortage.

“Government (will be) importing 300 000 metric tonnes of grain for distribution to vulnerable members of society, while expecting the private sector to import at least 464 000 metric tonnes of grain for sale through normal market channels.”

Nationally, the grain importation plan for 2024 aims to address the shortfall of 765 000 metric tonnes.

The government, according to Ncube, has already imported 10,187 metric tonnes of grain, now stored in Grain Marketing Board (GMB) silos.

Furthermore, ZWL60.9 million has been allocated for grain distribution to 10 provinces, resulting in the distribution of 32 241.2 metric tonnes of grain to food-insecure households as of June 15.

Minister Ncube emphasized that the government’s efforts are being complemented by insurance risk premiums from the Africa Risk Capacity, estimated at US$31.8 million, and combined payouts from the government and development partners.

These funds will be distributed through cash transfers to the most affected districts.

Development partners such as the are also supporting food mitigation efforts in response to the declaration of a National State of Disaster.

In the community

Lupane’s dark classrooms: MP seeks answers on electrification and poor academic performance

Published

1 day ago

July 26, 2024

Admin

BY STAFF REPORTER

34 out of 141 schools in Lupane are electrified

A Lupane Member of Parliament, Mail Nkomo, recently expressed concern in the National Assembly about the zero-pass rate in Lupane and sought solutions to address this issue.

She directed her concerns to the Minister of Energy and Power Development, asking when the ministry would electrify schools in Lupane to address the zero-pass rate.

In response, Minister Edgar Moyo stated that only 34 schools in the district are powered. “Lupane has a total of 141 schools, comprising 114 primary and 37 secondary schools,” he responded.

“Of these, 34 schools, including administration blocks and school cottages, are completely electrified.” Minister Moyo added that his ministry is constructing power lines outside Lupane Centre to cater to more schools.

“Somgolo and Makhekhe schools were recently completed, and other schools have had solar systems installed through the Rural Electrification Agency (REA) and development partners collaborating with the Ministry of Primary and Secondary Education.”

Nkomo further probed the minister on the government’s policy regarding rural electrification and power sustainability in rural areas, as well as plans for maintaining power lines in public places.

Minister Moyo elaborated, “The Ministry, through the REA, collects 6% of all electricity sales made by ZETDC and other retailers. The Rural Electrification Fund (REF) is used to provide access to a reliable electric power supply for rural dwellers, regardless of their location or occupation, in a way that allows for a reasonable return on investment through an appropriate tariff that is economically responsive and supportive of rural areas. The REF hands over the network to ZETDC for operation and maintenance to ensure efficient grid expansion and total access strategy.”

Matabeleland North province has had the worst Grade 7 pass rate in recent years. For instance, in the 2021 Grade 7 results, 51 schools failed to achieve a single pass, according to government data. The previous year, 85 schools recorded a zero percent pass rate. Since then, the ministry has refused to release provincial results to the media, citing concerns about causing divisions.