Good rains expected for SADC region, bringing hope to Zimbabwe and other countries

BY NOKUTHABA DLAMINI

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) region is expected to receive good rainfall in the coming 2024-2025 summer cropping season, bringing hope to countries such as Zimbabwe, Angola, Botswana, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mozambique, and Namibia.

This is according to the 29th Annual Southern Africa Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) report, which forecasts normal to above-normal rainfall for the bulk of the region.

“The remainder of the region is likely to have normal to below-normal rainfall during this period of the 2024/25 season, including the island states of Comoros and Seychelles,” the report states. This is a welcome relief for countries such as Zimbabwe, which experienced one of the worst El Nino-induced droughts in years.

The report also notes that northern Madagascar is likely to receive above-normal rainfall during this period of the 2023/24 rainfall season, while the temperature outlook for the entire 2024/25 rainfall season is expected to be mostly above long-term averages over the whole SADC region.

“The outlook is broadly consistent with the forecasts generated with the multi-model ensemble of international dynamical climate forecast models presented by the World Meteorological Organisation,” the report says.

Regional experts say there are good chances of normal to below-normal conditions during the October to December (OND) period for south-western Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, and north-east South Africa.

Below-normal rainfall is expected to expand to cover northern DRC and northern Tanzania by the December to February (DJF) period.

“The forecast probabilities are broadly consistent with the known influence of La Niña on the regional climate,” the report says.

A national forecast for Zimbabwe is expected to be made in the coming few days as the country steps up efforts to prepare for the summer crop.

Climate experts say La Niña events are also associated with heightened risk of cyclones – tropical storms that bring winds, heavy rains, damage, and destruction to countries in the region.

Tropical storms have caused severe humanitarian impacts in Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi, and Zimbabwe, including deaths and injuries, infrastructure damage, and long-lasting socio-economic impacts.

In summary, the SADC region can expect good rainfall in the coming summer cropping season, which is a welcome relief after the devastating El Nino-induced drought.

However, climate experts caution that La Niñas don’t always result in widespread rain, and the region should be prepared for any eventuality.