Food insecurity is expected to worsen in parts of Matabeleland North from October as poor households exhaust their own-produced food stocks and increasingly depend on expensive markets, according to the latest FEWS NET food-security assessment.
The September 2026 FEWS NET Key Message Update projects Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes to emerge in October and persist through at least January in deficit-producing areas of Matabeleland North and Matabeleland South, as well as parts of Masvingo, Manicaland, Midlands and the extreme north of the country. (FEWS NET)
FEWS NET says the deterioration will be driven by the “seasonal depletion of own-produced food stocks”, below-average incomes among poor households and high staple-food prices, which are expected to constrain food access and create food consumption gaps.
The warning comes despite Zimbabwe recording an above-average 2026 maize harvest nationally.
FEWS NET says access to staple foods remains constrained in deficit-producing areas because grain movement from surplus to deficit markets remains low, while maize prices in deficit areas remain elevated as households increasingly depend on markets after their own food stocks run out.
Matabeleland North faces another difficult season
The latest assessment says food stocks in deficit-producing areas are expected to be largely depleted by October.
As households become more dependent on markets, FEWS NET expects them to face growing pressure from high food prices and insufficient income.
The agency says households are likely to move from less damaging coping strategies, including dietary changes and borrowing, towards more severe measures such as asset sales and reducing meal size and frequency
The situation is particularly concerning in Matabeleland North because water and pasture conditions are already deteriorating in the province’s semi-arid areas.
FEWS NET reported that seasonal rivers and streams were drying while borehole and weir levels were declining. In the worst-affected areas, households were reportedly beginning to scoop riverbed sand to access water.
The latest assessment also warns that the 2026/27 El Niño forecast is likely to bring an erratic start to the November-to-March rainfall season and below-average rainfall across Zimbabwe, accompanied by above-average temperatures through at least January.
This could put further pressure on livestock, water supplies and agricultural livelihoods in already vulnerable communities.
ZimVAC’s earlier warning
The latest FEWS NET projection follows concerns already documented in the 2025 ZimVAC Rural Livelihoods Assessment.
The assessment projected that 20% of households in Matabeleland North would face cereal insecurity during the January–March 2026 peak hunger period.
Binga was projected to have the highest proportion of cereal-insecure households in the province at 37%, followed by Nkayi at 22%. The assessment projected 126,475 cereal-insecure people across Matabeleland North during that period.
The latest FEWS NET assessment suggests that food insecurity remains a concern as communities approach another lean period.
For communities in Matabeleland North, however, the problem extends beyond the availability of grain.
Councillor Given Moyo of Kachechete, speaking to VicFallsLive, says the region’s environmental conditions, including the Kalahari sands, make food production difficult, while human-wildlife conflict is adding another layer of pressure to already vulnerable households.
For families living alongside wildlife, crop destruction, livestock losses and threats to human safety can further undermine livelihoods.
His assessment comes as FEWS NET warns of deteriorating access to food and income in the province and forecasts below-average rainfall associated with the coming El Niño conditions.
The combination of food stocks running out, high food prices, limited incomes, deteriorating water and pasture conditions and human-wildlife conflict presents a complex food-security challenge for communities across Matabeleland North.